ANALYTICS

Regression

Which countries are most likely to fight wars?

This study is a reproduction of the following article published in the Economist:

Article: The Economist Nov 8th 2018 edition - Which countries are most likely to fight wars?

The code and data is available here:

Data Source: The Economist GitHub

First, let’s take a look at Combat deaths by region over the past century:


Creating logistic regressions to estimate the probability that a country would be involved in a conflict in any year, given its level of wealth.

The third-order polynomial equations is selected to predict the probability of fighting a war in a given year

country_involved_in_conflict ~ wealth + wealth^2 + wealth^3).

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = country_involved_in_conflict ~ log2_interpolated_gdp_per_capita + 
##     log2_interpolated_gdp_per_capita_squared + log2_interpolated_gdp_per_capita_cubed, 
##     family = "binomial", data = df)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -0.5177  -0.5000  -0.4613  -0.3996   2.8354  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                           Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)                               4.216077   8.333871   0.506   0.6129
## log2_interpolated_gdp_per_capita         -2.823157   2.136572  -1.321   0.1864
## log2_interpolated_gdp_per_capita_squared  0.342850   0.180959   1.895   0.0581
## log2_interpolated_gdp_per_capita_cubed   -0.012530   0.005063  -2.475   0.0133
##                                           
## (Intercept)                               
## log2_interpolated_gdp_per_capita          
## log2_interpolated_gdp_per_capita_squared .
## log2_interpolated_gdp_per_capita_cubed   *
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 11015  on 17094  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 10852  on 17091  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 10860
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6

Wealth vs chance of conflict

References

The citations and data sources used for this case

The data file used in this wrangler task was retrieved from UN Member State Admission Dates source which was published by the United Nations Meetings Coverages and Press Releases website.